Monday, April 6, 2020

The One

We will spend the better part of the next decade tracking patient zero, the monkey, the Gaeten Dugas bats or the weird animal or whoever or whatever brought us the Covid virus.  Good luck with that.

I have had more conversations with Morrie, whoops I mean morons, about this issue that I want the planet to explode at this point and end it all.

We have a strong indication it came from waste by product found in open air markets that enabled transmission from animal to man and in turn we can then blame bats, turtles, lions, tigers and their kings, OH MY!  But we can also be sure that global warming has permitted a sea change (pun intended) that has warmed the planet to the point where animals are coming into urban areas in search of foods and bringing more than Lyme Disease with them. And then in turn the idea of road kill takes on a new meaning when they are sold in open air markets and touted as cures from everything to erectile dysfunction to cancer and in turn eaten.  And that could mean cross contamination between animals that enables further spread of disease most often found in the wild.  As if you were in a cage being looked at for dinner you would shit or piss yourself and that would drip onto the buddy below deck, like a cruise ship of old people and that buffet platter! The comparisons are endless here but in all reality we got a shit load of problems here and much of it now falls onto and because of man. Maybe that is why the virus is killing men faster and to that I have no issue, tag you're it! As I lick my hand first!

Today I actually spoke to someone who had a friend die from Covid. Given that he is incredibly social and networks like no one I know, works in a coffee shop and is an Artist with long time residence in the area this is one source I believe.  He also hates people and we share that in common.  His friend was a 46 year old woman who exhibited a cough, runny nose and what appeared to be a severe head cold.  She went to the ER and they dismissed her as she did not have sufficient symptoms to be tested;  Again this is a disease not a punch list so here again is the problem,  Then her fever spiked, her coughing became worse and when that does happen you have shortness of breath which was when  she was  raced to ER and admitted and by then it was too late the disease progressed rapidly and her lungs filled with fluid and she died of Covid as the "official" cause of death.  Her partner tested positive and is now in hospital under "observation."

Okay then this is what we will hear of when this ends many stories like that one.  There are many now and it is because our medical care is a dump bucket of bullshit.  Hence the reality is that this curve they speak of is about having the resources to treat the ill not to actually stop the disease as that is not happening as the piecemeal bullshit of states and their orders or not to move about in the public and of course the public's utter ignorance, oblivion or idiocy to follow the guidelines. You know it is sort of like voting against your best interest, that.

Now why has Germany which certainly was on the radar of Covid had fewer fatalities? Well this article in the New York Times explains this and largely it was again testing, tracking and hospitalizing anyone who exhibited symptoms.
They call them corona taxis: Medics outfitted in protective gear, driving around the empty streets of Heidelberg to check on patients who are at home, five or six days into being sick with the coronavirus. 
They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins.

Remember Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson? They were hospitalized for over a week before released as that was to ensure that the disease did not progress into lung deterioration.  Being famous and rich I am sure had nothing to do with it

More than 100,000 cases were confirmed. But with 1,584 deaths, Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.6 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and nearly 3 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.8 percent.
And of course they are German and order is not an issue.

Germany is conducting around 350,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other European country. Early and widespread testing has allowed the authorities to slow the spread of the pandemic by isolating known cases while they are infectious. It has also enabled lifesaving treatment to be administered in a more timely way.
“When I have an early diagnosis and can treat patients early — for example put them on a ventilator before they deteriorate — the chance of survival is much higher,” Professor Kräusslich said.
Medical staff, at particular risk of contracting and spreading the virus, are regularly tested. To streamline the procedure, some hospitals have started doing block tests, using the swabs of 10 employees, and following up with individual tests only if there is a positive result. And of course it is free.  

And tracking is essential 

A 22-year-old man who had no symptoms but whose employer — a school — had asked him to take a test after learning that he had taken part in a carnival event where someone else had tested positive. 
In most countries, including the United States, testing is largely limited to the sickest patients, so the man probably would have been refused a test. 
Not in Germany. As soon as the test results were in, the school was shut, and all children and staff were ordered to stay at home with their families for two weeks. Some 235 people were tested. 
“Testing and tracking is the strategy that was successful in South Korea and we have tried to learn from that

And clear leadership.

Beyond mass testing and the preparedness of the health care system, many also see Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership as one reason the fatality rate has been kept low.
Ms. Merkel, a trained scientist, has communicated clearly, calmly and regularly throughout the crisis, as she imposed ever-stricter social distancing measures on the country. The restrictions, which have been crucial to slowing the spread of the pandemic, met with little political opposition and are broadly followed

And we have crazy dopey grandpa. And Americans are assholes. And we are fucked.  And right away I have seen that in Tennessee they are already demanding a lifting of restrictions by those in the money as they saw the University of Washington's study that has modeled the virus apex coming sooner and in turn the time frame changes as the goal posts are moved. Again this is all theoretical as in Hoboken and Jersey City and Newark they pushed the pedal further and faster than the state overall when it came to shutting it down (despite the other Barista insistence that we do more)  and we have increased testing sites and while we have also increased positives and deaths I have not heard any hysteria about hospitals on overload.  Jersey City also contracted with a private lab to get results faster but it is already starting to decline. Again we have no way of knowing anything as it is just numbers at this point.  **An this is because of out 1000 POS cases 48 are first responders.**So again where is the population it is drawing from - the already sick and we know that is nursing homes as again the Hudson Reporter seems to be the only source for the data we have.  So again without details we have no way of knowing if were exposed like in Germany; However,  It is serious but not as it is across the river which has a broader denser population who decided running out the area was the way to stop the spread and it didn't. Hence that is why an uptick in upstate New York as well as north New Jersey.   But the hardest hit communities are still largely secular and often the poorest.

If you are curious to see the UW study you can see your state in comparison to others here.  Again these projections are modeled on following the social distancing curves that are more strident in the areas such as Seattle, San Francisco, New York that were early to implement them and push cooperation.  Cuomo is raising fees to those who violate the order and in Hoboken it is mandatory for all residents to wear masks when outside.  He has been the most assertive due to the small size of that city and the residents who have been utterly uncooperative as this rolled along.  And yet just across the city line we hear nothing about Weehawken (they have 55 cases) as they have strong density ordinances that have prevented tight urban dwellings and residences being built  which also may be a factor.  Jersey City struggles with its "image"  and this will kill off (I suspect and yes pun intended)  some of the development as the small business that are the predominant ones will not make it and that will turn this city into a smaller town and less interesting; I just feel that in the air.

And that is where my Barista I ended the conversation about how none of this is going to end well and we were not speaking of the dead.  People die all the time and to have a surge at once is well in and of itself horrifying and this is such a situation. We have death by gun violence, our wars for nothing and of course the mass killings by Police which were a 1,000 a year and yet I don't see the hysteria over that one by leaders commandeering the television networks and ranting and raving about that issue. No its prayers and thoughts. Its what I am doing about Covid right now!

This is a disease and much of it could have been planned for and offset with said planning but nope the great unwashed (and it appears I have been right all along with that one) will go back to well not work as that won't happen it will take a year or two before we even see unemployment get down below the 10 million mark (and climbing) so again this is a time to hit the reset button and see why we cannot change what works and what doesn't. Such as unemployment as perhaps that should be offset directly to the employer to administer and handle during a time of crisis as they love to say the private sector can do it all.  Well they are with medical care and you can see how well that worked out.  Again Americans are lazy fucks and that is why Congress has kept whittling away at that safety net as they know they are right about that.. prove them wrong. Vote them out.   The one way is to be active and vocal or just be the greedy lazy fucks you are.  Your choice.

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