Saturday, April 18, 2020

Herd Immunity

This is happening right now in Sweden, the idea is when large portions of the public are exposed to a disease and become immune, but it is usually talked about in the context of vaccination programs. In the case of Covid Swedish authorities have advised the public to practise social distancing and to work from home, if possible, and urged those over age 70 to self-isolate as a precaution.  Yet compared to the lockdowns imposed elsewhere in the world, the government’s response to the virus allows a liberal amount of personal freedom. Gosh in other words practicing personal responsibility.

I spoke to a real Nurse today and he was telling me that this falls into that classification and that many have been contaminated for failing to practice personal hygiene routines that includes truly washing hands well and not touching one's face when your hands have touched random surfaces at any time not just flu season or doing a pandemic.  The face masks do nothing except give one a false sense of security or at least keeps your sleeve clean as you can cough and sneeze into that.  As for gloves they are great but again like hands transmit whatever they touch but can enable you to ride or shop and then remove immediately when finished but again not as a way of replacing hand washing.  Again for shopping or commuting super handy but then I toss (immediately in a garbage can) when done and put a new pair on for each activity and use anti bacterial between wearings in lieu of washing as I am not able to.  Again kleenex and handkerchiefs are great to use and carry at all times to touch surfaces with and throw out when done or launder when home.

The Nurse also advised me to NOT watch the news or listen to the hysteria and I agree it is absurd and he said he goes home in street clothes and changes out scrubs at work and that any professional who did not do so regardless was transmitting medical waste and in turn are more a part of the problem and that many were long before this not wearing gloves or masks or doing so going from patient to patient in the same gear until Covid said what the fuck! Yes he confirmed many of my hypothesis about the profession and the false hero worship.  Remember most hospitals have been large transmitters of staph infections, MRSA, TB and other infections.  Yes folks hospitals are dangerous places for patients.

Then I came home and my Concierge told me about her friend in search of her Father who is black, a functioning addict but is employed and usually in contact regularly with her regardless of his situation. She had not heard from him for over two weeks and repeatedly called hospitals and jails in search of him when she was finally called by the hospital down the street here from my home that her father was in fact at the hospital in the Morgue.  Okay.  So two weeks earlier the same fame of time he had been in the hospital with an Asthma attack, was released and sent on his way.  24 hours later fell into the street collapsed and sustained traumatic brain injury and was DOA. They took him and placed his body in the morgue, did not tell her when she called, did not notify her despite that he had his cell phone on his body, ID and a ICE notification card and had actually been there in the same facility 24 hours earlier with paperwork confirming all of this.   She is awaiting a post mortem to see cause of death.  Yes aren't medical professionals heroes!  Applause please.

When this all began I wondered what oddness would come out of this and well the end of civil liberties was the last thing I thought about and well then again this all makes sense given the state of the world.  The virus just gave perfect cover for this war of the dicks over whose is bigger during the pandemic.

Meanwhile Sweden is living its best life and to think I saw Alexander Skarsgard before this got worse  with mandatory face masks now in NYC doing whatever he was doing (a combo of exercising and looking hot) at Harbor Piers.  To think I could be in lockdown with him makes me thrilled or in Sweden whichever.

For those not in the know, Sweden, a nation of 10 million, had a total of 3,447 confirmed virus cases and 105 deaths by Sunday, according to a Johns Hopkins University tally. However, there has been limited testing, with some 24,500 tests conducted by Wednesday, according to official statistics.  

Sweden’s current chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, argued that even if the country’s comparatively permissive policies are an anomaly, they are more sustainable and effective in protecting the public’s health than “drastic” moves like closing schools for four or five months.

“The goal is to slow down the amount of new people getting infected so that health care gets a reasonable chance to take care of them. And that’s what we all do in every country in Europe,” Mr Tegnell said. “We just choose different methods to do it.”

Again here in the United States where testing is random, confusing and well badly handled our cases rise as lockdowns and more hysteria continue. And when I ask if that makes sense as we have been in some form of quarantine for not one but two periods of infection windows how is that so unless it is fact essential workers composing that rise or that a hell of a lot of people have not been quarantining and on that note what have they been doing as there is nothing to do. 

I asked the wonderful Government both local and state and the response was NEGATIVE meaning no answer.  Just lather rinse repeat. In other words stay home bitch and quit asking questions.  But here is the kicker, this virus has been here longer than what most think.




Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought

Non-peer reviewed study from Stanford found rate of virus may be 50 to 85 times higher than official figures


Kari Paul
Guardian
Fri 17 Apr 2020

A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.

“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”

The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.
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At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.

That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.

The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.

The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon.

“The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said.

Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus.

It is also unclear if the study, conducted exclusively on residents of Santa Clara county, is representative of the rest of the United States, researchers said.

“It is absolutely critical that similar studies be done all around the country,” said Jayanta Bhattacharya, a professor at Stanford and author on the study. “It’s very clear that the virus is more prevalent in some areas than in others, and understanding the prevalence of viruses in each region is is a critical step forward to making some policy.”

Other large-scale sample studies are currently underway. The National Institute of Health is testing 10,000 people. UC Berkeley is going to test 5,000 healthy volunteers to see if they have, or have ever had, the coronavirus.

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