Monday, November 27, 2017

Hee Haw

 In 2013 The New York Times, aka "Fake News" declared Nashville the "it" city.  This might be akin to Vanity Fair and its annual proclamations of the "It Girl" which we now know was a part of an "arrangement" by Harvey Weinstein, his sexual victim and his bullying and intimidating the Magazines from whatever blackmail/extortion he had "arranged"  Wow that is a lot of arranging! Could you throw some furniture and decor in there and we have a new Fixer Upper show right there!

As I watch the Nashville local news which I now refer to as Hee Haw the highly entertaining show of my youth that made fun of the rubes of country, I feel that is a much better comparison to that of actual news that covers stories of import, both national and regional, and occasionally wanders into international territory when the story demands it.  Who are we kidding here, this is 45th in the Nation for education and comprehension skills that oft relate to this are seriously lacking.  So the one time the locals accept the New York Times is when Nashville is in the title, otherwise they will be having none of that.

What they seem to seize on is the mythical number of 85-100 people a day moving to GREATER Nashville area.  Just for the record the same type of hype exists in Seattle with More Than 1,000 People Are Moving to Seattle Every Week, Census Report Shows

Okay let's understand how that estimate works.  It has some math and science involved and those are two things along with facts that fake news explains but it would require reading which that might be stressful as it has words and stuff. But it is based on numerous factors, births, deaths, relocations and of course both temporary and permanent which can include those in school, the military or other fields where they do move into the region but are not here for a long period.    Then it is averaged after the estimates, key word estimate, are done using data attained from numerous sources.  So again the data is as only good as they select to use.

This is from the local rag which I doubt is anymore read than the bigger papers but I am sure the Sports Section is well perused.
Nashville is still booming, and the pace hasn't slowed.

New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show the Nashville metro statistical area added 36,337 people during the one-year stretch that ended July 1, 2016, meaning the region grew by an average of 100 people a day over those 12 months.

The overall population of the 14-county Nashville region grew from 1,828,961 to 1,865,298, a 2 percent increase.

That closely matches the 36,435 net population increase that the Nashville area had from 2014 and 2015 — also an average of 100 people a day — and the 34,072 net population increase from 2013 to 2014, an average of 93 people a day.

From 2010 to 2016, the Nashville area grew an average 32,403 people a year, a pace of about 89 people daily. The overall population jumped by 11.6 percent during those six years.

Suburbs have absorbed the majority of the growth since 2015, with Rutherford County's population jumping by 9,828 people from 2015 to 2016, followed by Williamson County, which grew by 7,433. Davidson County, home of Nashville, grew by 6,087, and Wilson County grew by 4,009.

The population increases are not the same as the number of new people who have moved here.

Breaking down the region's growth of 36,337 people, approximately 28 percent (10,101 people) were the result of births and deaths, while 72 percent (25,358 people) were people who moved to the Nashville area.

“That’s not 100 people a day moving here,” said Nicholas J. Lindeman, economic and systems data analyst with Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. “That’s total growth. So that’s both births and deaths, and people moving in it out.”

Lindeman noted that if Nashville maintains this pace, the region would approach a population of around 2 million by the next census in 2020.

“The story for me, looking at the numbers, is that the region is doing really, really well.”

The Nashville metro area's population ranks 36th overall among the 382 metropolitan statistical areas. Nashville saw the 19th largest population increase from 2015 to 2016, and the 38th largest population increase by percentage.

While Nashville’s population has steadily grown, the population of the Memphis metro area — the second largest in Tennessee — grew by just 888 people, or .1 percent, from 2015 to 2016. That means the Memphis area has gained between two and three people a day.

Nashville gained more people a day from 2015 to 2016 than some of its other sister cities, including Raleigh, N.C. (86 people a day; 2.5 percent growth), Indianapolis (48 people a day; .9 percent growth), Louisville (16 people a day; .5 percent growth) and Cincinnati (27 people a day; .5 percent growth).

But Nashville is still trailing others comparable cities in year-to-year growth from 2015 to 2016: Austin, Texas (160 people a day; 2.9 percent growth); Charlotte, N.C. (136 people a day; 2 percent growth). Denver (121 people a day; 1.6 percent growth); and Portland, Ore (110 people a day, 1.7 percent growth).

Again, the article below was written in 2013 and anyone in the know knows that "it" designation has a sell by shelf life date.  And while the city is growing it will never be a Tier A city.  It wants to be but it is a Tier B city, akin to the ones above - Austin, Charlotte, not Denver nor Seattle which are now Tier A cities.  And those are Boston, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston.  What defines them is massive growth, industry, money, education and other components that enable them to maintain a steady level of growth regardless.  Seattle and Denver with Portland not far behind but still technically a Tier B city is that they have massive influx of money from a varied economic base.  Denver is pot.  It is and that it has always been a large transportation hub.  Then you have Seattle, Amazon bitch! Microsoft.  Some Boeing and in turn Pot.  Portland may grow but it has what - Pot.  The liberal lifestyle and proximity to major cities that are flexible and open minded also contribute to a Cities growth factor and rating.  What does Nashville have?  Well Medical Tourism which if they actually promoted that it would be amazing as in Tennessee they do little to nothing to provide residents with any medical care so hey come on down as there is more staff to serve you if you come cash in hand!  I know! Then there is that Country Music thing.   The rest of business centers on hospitality and tourism.  Low wages, high turnover here in the live free and die poor state, the motto of right to work laws.

The city lacks infrastructure and is decades behind. Sidewalks have been an issue for decades and nothing is being done nor ever will frankly.  I see very little of the current Mayor's transit plan coming to fruition here and while I am voting for it, I hope to be long gone by then. I wish them the best however with the plan as it is ambitious as it is lacking.  That seems to be the Nashville Way!

So when Nashville was declared an "it" city it was three years post flood with a Mayor determined to resuscitate the City after the devastation, pushing through a minor league baseball stadium underwritten and overbudget funded by tax payers.  Then there was the need to get businesses to relocate to the city via huge tax incentives which have since been found in a recent audit to fail to bring the jobs promise.  And lastly the bullshit about a tech sector is still one of debate and again non-existent depending upon whom you speak to and is largely connected to health care. Again this place screams Medical Tourism!   You do have to deal with the people but largely the actual Medical Professionals are from out of the region and are well educated.  I have no complaints about the skilled/trained staff.  I cannot comment on Nurses and the rest as there is shortage across the country and well I have little to say about the Medical Industrial Complex at large so this is not exceptional in respect to that and by exceptional I mean either good or bad.  This is the industry at large so you go with the one that works as no one has insurance and if you do or have cash then you are good to go!

As they say in Public Relations, there is no bad press unless they spell your name wrong.  Tennessee is not as hard as one thinks and the "ville or vile as I call this place is just what it is - a town that thinks it is a city.  Okay.  Watch the morning Hee Haw shows and change to one station to the next and it is watching reruns.  This is what defines news here.  None.  Well crime reports, lots and lots of crime reports.  

Nashville’s Latest Big Hit Could Be the City Itself

JAN. 8, 2013

NASHVILLE — Portland knows the feeling. Austin had it once, too. So did Dallas. Even Las Vegas enjoyed a brief moment as the nation’s “it” city.

Now, it’s Nashville’s turn.

Here in a city once embarrassed by its Grand Ole Opry roots, a place that sat on the sidelines while its Southern sisters boomed economically, it is hard to find a resident who does not break into the goofy grin of the newly popular when the subject of Nashville’s status comes up.

Mayor Karl Dean, a Democrat in his second term, is the head cheerleader.

“It’s good to be Nashville right now,” he said during a recent tour of his favorite civic sites, the biggest of which is a publicly financed gamble: a new $623 million downtown convention center complex that is the one of the most expensive public projects in Tennessee history.

The city remains traditionally Southern in its sensibility, but it has taken on the luster of the current. On a Venn diagram, the place where conservative Christians and hipsters overlap would be today’s Nashville. 

Flush with young new residents and alive with immigrants, tourists and music, the city made its way to the top of all kinds of lists in 2012.

A Gallup poll ranked it in the top five regions for job growth. A national entrepreneurs’ group called it one of the best places to begin a technology start-up. Critics admire its growing food scene. GQ magazine declared it simply “Nowville.”  **Note that number changes and guess what? Not now!

And then there is the television show."Nashville,"a song-filled ABC drama about two warring country divas, had its premiere in October with nine million viewers. It appears to be doing for the city of 610,000 people what the prime-time soap opera"Dallas"did for that Texas city in the ‘80s.  *Show cancelled!

“You can’t buy that,” Mr. Dean said. “The city looks great in it.”

Different regions capture the nation’s fancy for different reasons. Sometimes, as with Silicon Valley, innovation and economic engines drive it. Other times, it’s a bold civic event, like the Olympics, or a cultural wave, like the way grunge music elevated Seattle.

Here in a fast-growing metropolitan region with more than 1.6 million people, the ingredients for Nashville’s rise are as much economic as they are cultural and, critics worry, could be as fleeting as its fame.

“People are too smug about how fortunate we are now,” said the Southern journalist John Egerton, 77, who has lived in Nashville since the 1970s.

“We ought to be paying more attention to how many people we have who are ill-fed and ill-housed and ill-educated,” he said.  *Nashville the home to 33% educated, 60% overweight and uninsured with massive health problems. Irony or oxymoron?

Many will argue that the city’s schools need improvement, and although it remains more progressive on social issues than Tennessee as a whole, the city, with its largely white population, still struggles with a legacy of segregation and has had public battles over immigration and sexual orientation.From an economic standpoint, it has been a measured rise. When the housing boom hit the South, Nashville, long a sleepy capital city with a Bible Belt sensibility, did not reap the financial gains seen in cities like Atlanta, whose metropolitan region is more than three times its size.

But Nashville’s modest growth meant a softer fall and a quicker path out of recession. By July 2012, real estate closings were up 28 percent over the previous year. Unemployment in Davidson County, which includes Nashville, is about 5.7 percent, compared with 7.8 percent nationally, and job growth is predicted to rise by 18 percent in next five years, said Garrett Harper, vice president for research with the Nashville Chamber of Commerce.

He and others attribute Nashville’s stability and current economic health to a staid mix of employers in fields like health care management, religious publishing, car manufacturing and higher education, led by Vanderbilt University.

By some estimates, half of the nation’s health care plans are run by companies in the Nashville area.

“Health care is countercyclical,” Mr. Harper said. “It inoculates the city against a lot of the winds that blow.” **Again Vanderbilt Medical is the prime employer here and is no longer part of the school

But the music industry is the bedrock of Nashville’s economy. In the past two decades, country music has grown into a national darling. The city has attracted musicians and producers whose work moves beyond the twang and heartache.

On a recent evening, Nashville’s once-seedy honky-tonk district was jammed with young hopefuls pulling guitars out of Hondas, a bus from “America’s Got Talent” and Aerosmith fans heading to the Bridgestone Arena.

It is not uncommon to see the power couple Keith Urban and Nicole Kidman show up at a popular restaurant, or to pass Vince Gill on the street.

Music celebrities are attracted to a state with no income tax and a ready-made talent pool. But they also just like it.

Jennifer Nettles, of the country duo Sugarland, spent 17 years in Atlanta and has been dipping in and out of New York and Nashville for years. She recently bought a farm here, had a baby and is settling in with her husband, Justin Miller.

“Part of what is really attractive about Nashville right now is that it isn’t Atlanta, and I love Atlanta,” she said. “There’s a bit of charm and a richness a city the size of Nashville allows for.”

As if to underscore Nashville’s position in the nation’s musical hierarchy, the city hosted the annual Grammy nomination concert in December. It was the first time the show was not held in Los Angeles.

But to be a truly great city, some skeptics argue, it has to be a place that tends to its residents first and tourists second.  *That explains the housing push and push back with many of the investments largely being Air Bnb

The city’s politicians are banking on the tourists. At the center of the plan is the Music City Center, a huge convention center whose main section is shaped like a giant guitar laid on its back.

It sits on 19 downtown acres and is attached to both the Country Music Hall of Fame and an 800-room, $270 million Omni Hotel, which is expected to open in the fall.

To pay for it all, the city offered generous tax breaks and based public financing on increased hotel and rental car fees and taxes. To lure the hotel, for example, the city discounted property taxes by more than 60 percent for 25 years.  **Which explains the hotel boom here

The idea was to help the city land bigger conventions, like the National Rifle Association conference, which will bring 48,000 people to the city in 2015.**which explains Country Music Association response to Vegas

But using generous economic incentives and relying on conventions has been called an outdated economic strategy.

“This was probably a good idea in 1985. And probably a good idea in 1995, said Emily Evans, a member of the region’s Metropolitan Council. “But in 2012, the momentum for that kind of economic development has passed.”

She once called the convention center a “riverboat gamble.”

“In giving away your tax base for the purpose of expanding your tax base in the future,” Ms. Evans said, “you make it difficult to deliver on the fundamentals, the things that make your city livable, like parks and roads and schools.”

Mr. Dean, a former city lawyer who became mayor in 2007 and led the city’s recovery from historic floods in 2010, said the project, which got under way during the recession, has been a fight every step of the way.

“The gains for the city are real and tangible,” he said.

The mayor has orchestrated more than a dozen tax incentive deals over the past few years. Most recently, he arranged a $66 million incentive package to help the health care giant HCA Holdings move part of its Nashville operations to new midtown high-rise buildings.  **I suspect that it was used to buy its failing competitor CHS to further consolidate medical care and raise prices but hey!

He acknowledges that more needs to be done on transportation and education, but in the meantime, he, like most of Nashville’s residents, is enjoying its ride.

“I love the rhythm of this town and the pace of it and the tone of it,” said Mr. Egerton, the writer. “I think Nashville is a big unfinished song.”

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